PHOENIX — After a sluggish start to the 2025 monsoon season, storm activity is expected to increase across metro Phoenix this week, bringing much-needed rain and a break from triple-digit heat.
While most storms on Tuesday are forecast to remain south and east of the Valley, the National Weather Service (NWS) says the Phoenix area could start seeing showers as early as Wednesday morning, with greater chances for thunderstorms and gusty winds during the evening and overnight hours through Thursday.
Forecasters emphasize there’s still some uncertainty in the timing and intensity of the storms. However, computer models suggest overnight storms may dominate this monsoon cycle, possibly delivering scattered rainfall and isolated lightning across parts of Maricopa County.
Only one measurable monsoon storm so far this year
Since the official start of the monsoon season on June 15, Phoenix has only received 0.16 inches of rainfall, which occurred on July 2 at Sky Harbor International Airport—the city’s official climate measuring site. Before that, the last recorded measurable rainfall in Phoenix occurred on June 4.
Cooler temperatures expected to follow rain
The incoming monsoon system is expected to bring a notable drop in temperatures, especially midweek. Forecast models show Wednesday and Thursday could bring highs near or just over 100 degrees, a significant drop from the 110+ degree streak the region endured for much of late June and early July.
If enough cloud cover and rainfall occur, Phoenix could see high temperatures dip below 100 degrees for the first time since June 22, when the high reached 99.
What to watch for
Best chances for rain: Wednesday evening through Thursday night.
Localized flooding: Flash flooding may be possible in low-lying or poorly drained areas.
Dust storms: Outflow boundaries could kick up dust, leading to visibility issues during evening commutes.
Wind gusts and lightning: Isolated thunderstorms may produce strong wind gusts and dangerous lightning.
Residents are encouraged to monitor local forecasts and stay weather-aware, especially when traveling during active storm periods. Updated radar and advisories are available through the National Weather Service and the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) for road-related impacts.
