A new Arizona governor poll shows Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs holding an early lead over Republican Congressman Andy Biggs in a potential 2026 Arizona governor race matchup, while Independent candidate Hugh Lytle remains in single digits.
According to a new survey released by Noble Predictive Insights, Hobbs leads Biggs 41% to 37% among registered Arizona voters. Independent candidate Hugh Lytle received 5% support, while 16% of voters said they remain undecided.
Arizona Poll Also Tested David Schweikert Matchup
The poll also measured a potential matchup between Hobbs and Republican Congressman David Schweikert. In that scenario, Hobbs led 42% to 35%, while Lytle received 6% support.
The Arizona Public Opinion Pulse survey was conducted May 5-7, 2026, among 996 registered Arizona voters and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.
Andy Biggs Continues Building Support in Republican Primary
The new Arizona poll also showed Biggs strengthening his position in the Republican primary race. According to the survey, Biggs increased his support among Republican voters to 48%, placing him near the majority threshold in the GOP field.
Political analysts continue to view Arizona as one of the nation’s top battleground states heading into the 2026 election cycle. Recent statewide races for governor, U.S. Senate, and president have all been decided by relatively narrow margins.
Undecided Arizona Voters Could Play Major Role in Election
The poll found Hobbs performing strongest among Democrats, moderates, urban voters, and voters in Pima County. Biggs continued to perform best among Republicans, conservatives, rural voters, and supporters of President Donald Trump.
One of the biggest takeaways from the survey was the large number of undecided voters. Approximately 16% of respondents in both hypothetical general election matchups said they were still unsure, suggesting the Arizona governor race remains highly fluid more than a year before Election Day.
Independent Candidate Hugh Lytle Could Influence Close Race
Independent candidate Hugh Lytle could also become a factor if the race remains competitive. Arizona elections have frequently been decided by razor-thin margins in recent years, meaning even modest third-party support could influence the final outcome.
The 2026 Arizona governor election is expected to attract significant national attention and millions in campaign spending as Democrats and Republicans battle for control in one of America’s most competitive swing states.
The full Arizona governor poll and methodology can be viewed through Noble Predictive Insights’ official report.
