PHOENIX — Just days before Election Day, Arizona polling shows Republican Donald Trump with a slight 48%-47% lead over Democrat Kamala Harris in the race for the state’s 11 electoral votes, according to Noble Predictive Insights (NPI). In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego’s lead over Republican Kari Lake has narrowed to 48%-44%.
The survey, conducted Monday through Wednesday, indicates that both races are well within competitive range, with Trump’s lead falling within the 3.5% margin of error and Gallego’s lead just outside it.
Arizona Voters Lean Pro-Choice on Proposition 139
NPI polling also covered Proposition 139, a ballot measure to expand abortion rights. Results show strong support for the measure, with 57% in favor and 33% opposed. “This is a classic wedge issue,” said NPI Chief of Research David Byler. “Democrats are united, independents lean pro-choice, and Republicans are divided.”
Senate Race: Lake Closing in on Gallego’s Lead
Since the July primary, polling indicates that Gallego’s lead has tightened. He held a 10-point lead in May and a 7-point lead in August, but Lake’s recent gains show a shrinking gap. NPI founder and CEO Mike Noble noted that “Republicans trust [Lake] less than Trump, and some independents who support Trump also lean toward Gallego.”
Split Outcome a Possibility
NPI’s data suggests that if Trump outperforms his polling, he may pull Lake along with him, although a split decision with Trump winning Arizona’s presidential vote and Gallego securing the Senate seat remains a likely outcome.
Poll averages from RealClearPolitics currently show Trump with a 2.3-point lead over Harris in Arizona, while FiveThirtyEight shows Gallego with a 5.9-point Senate advantage.
