Last year’s monsoon season was disappointing, but it could result in a good monsoon season this year. When making predictions on monsoon seasons, meteorologists use historical data, surface conditions, and even computer simulated models. Interestingly enough, the dryness of this June may be the factor most indicative of a wet monsoon season.
Meteorologist are predicting that there is a 33% chance for above-average rain along with a 60% change of above-average temperature this June. The dryness and heat could create just the right conditions for a quick start to the monsoon season. The hot summer air creates a high pressure system that drifts up to the Four Corners area and draws moist air into Arizona. This moist air is the biggest factor leading to Arizona monsoons.
The problem with these early storms is that they could bring lightning without rain. This lightening, and the dry conditions that created it, might result in summer wildfires. These wildfires could also mix with the strong wind gust, creating even more of a problem.
Finally, meteorologist review El Niño conditions which make wetter summers. Arizona just experienced a dry winter thanks to La Niña, meaning that even a minor El Niño could make for a very wet summer.
Despite all of the signs pointing to a wet summer, Arizona, as always, can only hope for a little rain.